It appears that the Federal Reserve is on hold when it comes to moving interest rates until midyear, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. But “most of the other major central banks remain in easing mode, providing an additional tailwind for gold.” Ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty suggest upside potential to the psychologically important $3,000 level, he said.
Source – Market Watch
The U.S. Federal Reserve jolted markets with an unexpectedly hawkish set of projections for the path of interest rates next year, setting gold prices up for a blow — but analysts told CNBC they still see solid support for the precious metal in 2025.
The Fed’s “dot plot,” a gauge of policymakers’ outlook, now suggests the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2025, compared with four quarter-point cuts previously expected in September, when concerns about the weakening labor market were front-of-mind. The big concern for the central bank is now whether the policies of incoming President-elect Donald Trump — particularly his threat of sweeping trade tariffs — will prove inflationary.
Source – CNBC
Shares of Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 1.14% to C$24.33 Friday, in what proved to be an all-around poor trading session for the Canadian market, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index falling 0.36% to 25,442.91.
Source – Market Watch
“The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting EM official sector gold demand, and with global growth concerns (tariff and cycle related) set to raise ETF and OTC investment demand,” Citi stated in a note.
“We expect gold to continue to rise as a hedge against growth and other risks, including actual and perceived rising growth risks, including trade wars, still-high interest rates weighing on growth, continued deterioration in the U.S. labor market, ex-U.S. currency devaluation risks, and potential U.S. equity drawdown risks,” the bank noted.
Source – Reuters
Zinc, the biggest loser in the LME complex, is currently trading 4.8% lower than at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, tin prices have increased by 13.5% in the first few weeks of the year, making it the biggest winner.
Copper refining grew as expected at 4.2%, but mine production surprised at 2.3%, 0.5% higher than the ICSG September forecast.
The supply of refined copper is under threat due to mine production, which has put downward pressure on processing fees in copper smelters, according to Commerzbank.
The lead market experienced a minor oversupply due to a substantial increase in mine production.
This increase, just under 2%, was fueled by significantly higher supply in the US, Australia, Peru, and Mexico.
Source – Invezz
The silver market has seen a lot of noise at the $33 level, as it is a major resistance level from what I can see. At this point, you need to understand that the silver market is not just a precious metal, but an industrial one.
Source – FX Empire
According to a recent Wells Fargo study, 71% of retirees worry they won’t have enough savings to last through retirement. That’s shocking! I remember back in 2008, I was just out of high school and remembered that you have to eventually have to have some sort of retirement but at that time so many people were going through a financial crisis and globally!
That was the wake-up call then that I should have started my gold journey, but I just ended up working hard and years later I finally got serious about research and understanding retirement portfolios with precious metals. So, then I was led to seriously researching gold allocation in retirement planning.
Let me tell you something that might surprise you – gold isn’t just another investment. It’s like having insurance for your retirement savings! Throughout my research, I’ve seen gold perform incredibly well during times when other investments were struggling.
Back in 2020, while stocks were on a roller coaster ride, gold hit an all-time high of over $2,000 per ounce. That’s exactly why we include it in retirement portfolios – it tends to zig when other investments zag.
Think of it this way: gold is like that friend who shows up strongest when times are tough. During the 2008 financial crisis, while the S&P 500 dropped by 37%, gold actually gained 5.5%. Pretty impressive, right?
But here’s the thing – gold isn’t just about protecting against market crashes. It’s really about preserving your purchasing power over the long haul. Once upon a time ago, you could buy a nice suit for $200. Today? Well, let’s just say inflation has been busy! Gold helps protect against that erosion of your dollars’ value.
You’ve probably heard the old rule of thumb about keeping 5-10% of your portfolio in gold. But let me share something I’ve learned – there’s no one-size-fits-all approach!
The classic 5-10% rule came from studies showing this range provided the best balance of risk and reward over long periods. But here’s what most “advisors” won’t tell you: this percentage should shift based on your age and circumstances.
For instance, I found that people who are 10+ years from retirement stick closer to 5%, while those near or in retirement might want to consider up to 15%. Why? Because when you’re younger, you have more time to recover from market downturns. But when you’re retired, you need that extra protection!
While it seemed like a good idea to put 30%of gold in your portfolio or more, it may actually limit your overall returns in the following years. Balance is key!
Here’s a quote from James Rickards in his book The New Case for Gold 2016, talking about Gold in a well balanced portfolio.
“If you have 10 percent of your portfolio in gold and it goes down 20 percent, you’ve lost only 2 percent on your portfolio. That’s hardly a wipeout. Still, if it goes up 500 percent, which I expect, then you’ll do quite well on that 10 percent allocation. That’s a 50 percent gain on your portfolio from one investment. I recommend the 10 percent allocation because of the asymmetry in the potential upside versus the potential downside. With these simple rules as a guide-buy physical gold, avoid leverage, and keep your allocation to 10 percent-you’re ready to weather the storm.”
There are a number of factors that come into play when working on your gold allocation and things to consider:
Your job stability and industry (some careers are more recession-proof than others)
Your other investments (real estate, business ownership, etc.)
Your retirement timeline (longer horizons can handle more risk)
Your monthly expenses and income needs
People typically fall into three categories:
But here’s the crucial part – these numbers should shift based on economic conditions and your personal situation. During times of high inflation or economic uncertainty, you might want to lean toward the higher end of your comfort range.
Here are the red flags to watch out for:
Inflation consistently running above 4% (like we’ve seen recently)
Major stock market indexes showing high volatility
Global conflicts affecting trade relations
Central banks implementing unusual monetary policies
Something that has happened throughout the years is when you start seeing regular headlines about economic uncertainty, it’s usually a bit late to make major portfolio changes. That’s why you should keep maintaining a baseline gold allocation and adjusting gradually.
Through trial and error (and yes, some mistakes along the way), there’s more than one way to add gold to your retirement portfolio. Let me break down the main options:
Physical Gold IRA:
Gold ETFs:
Mining Stocks:
I think a mix of physical gold through an IRA and some mining stocks for growth potential. But remember – mining stocks aren’t the same as owning gold itself! Having physical control of your gold is direct ownership that will prove useful in the long run.
One of the biggest mistakes many people make is the “set it and forget it” approach. Your gold allocation isn’t a crockpot dinner – it needs regular attention!
Make a reminder in reviewing your allocation quarterly, but only making major adjustments annually unless there’s a significant market event. Here’s a basic framework:
Check gold prices against other assets
Review economic indicators
Assess your personal situation changes
Make gradual adjustments (no more than 2-3% at a time)
Don’t panic when your gold prices drop and sell the whole lot out of fear and later regret it years down the road. The lesson here is to make small, deliberate adjustments rather than dramatic changes.
Let me share some hard-learned lessons about what not to do with your gold allocation:
Don’t chase performance! Too many people load up on gold after prices spike
Avoid investing based on fear or news headlines
Don’t forget about storage and insurance costs for physical gold
Never buy from unverified dealers (I’ve heard some horror stories!)
The biggest mistake? Thinking of gold as a get-rich-quick investment rather than a portfolio stabilizer. It’s wealth insurance, not a lottery ticket!
I’ve learned that the right gold allocation is as unique as your fingerprint. While the traditional 5-15% range is a good starting point, your perfect percentage depends on your age, risk tolerance, and economic conditions.
Remember, gold isn’t about getting rich quick – it’s about protecting what you’ve already built. Start with a modest allocation and adjust based on your circumstances and comfort level. And please, don’t make changes without careful consideration!
Take some time this week to review your retirement portfolio. Are you adequately protected against economic uncertainty? If you’re unsure, consider consulting with a financial advisor who has experience with precious metals allocation. It doesn’t hurt to ask questions in fact it’s a benefit!
Your retirement security is too important to leave to chance. Whether you choose physical gold, ETFs, or a mix of both, make sure your portfolio has the protection it needs for whatever economic conditions lie ahead.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, investment advisor, or registered broker. The content provided here reflects personal research and opinion and should not be considered professional financial advice.
Any investment decisions you make should be based on your own research or consultation with a qualified financial professional who can review your personal situation, goals, and risk tolerance. Investment in precious metals, including gold, carries risk and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Examples, statistics, and scenarios mentioned in this article are for illustration purposes only. Your actual investment needs and suitable portfolio allocations may differ significantly based on your individual circumstances.
Always conduct thorough due diligence and consult with licensed financial, investment, tax, and legal professionals before making any investment decisions. This is especially important for retirement planning and precious metals investments.
By reading this article, you acknowledge that any actions you take based on this information are at your own risk.
Last updated: [Oct] 2024