Copper

Shipments of refined copper from the central African country jumped by 71% year-on-year to 1.48 million metric tons in 2024. The Congo is now by some margin the largest supplier of refined metal to the world’s largest buyer.

The Congo’s share of Chinese copper imports has risen from 10% in 2020 to 36.7% with volumes steadily increasing over the fourth quarter. December’s imports of 167,735 tons were a new monthly record.

Source – Reuters

Copper can sustain current levels around $9 400 a ton until early April, after which the implementation of US tariffs could see prices drop to $8 500 within three months, Citigroup analysts including Tom Mulqueen said in a research note.

Copper fell 0.4% to $9,438.50 a ton on the LME as of 10:14 a.m. in Shanghai, while other base metals were mixed.

Source – Mining Weekly

Peru’s mining ministry on Friday said copper output in 2024 amounted to 2,736,150 metric tons, down 0.7% from 2023. The drop marked the copper giant’s first decline after four straight years of recovery following the pandemic.

Source – Mining.com

The spread between the cash LME copper contract and benchmark three-month futures spiked to a premium for the first time in 19 months on Friday.

It rocketed to $249 a metric ton, the highest since November 2021, compared to a discount, or contango, of $119 two days ago.

Copper prices on COMEX have surged as investors seek to price in potential tariffs, with the premium of COMEX over LME at $1,050 a ton on Friday, down from a record peak of $1,153 a day earlier.

Source – Mining.com

Glencore owns the Mutanda copper cobalt mine and has 75% stake in Kamoto Copper Company leaving the mines value at $6.8 billion dollars.

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In the latest market close, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) reached $13.17, with a +1.15% movement compared to the previous day. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.27%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a loss of 0.51%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.03%.

The the stock of company has fallen by 6.67% in the past month, lagging the Basic Materials sector’s gain of 7.68% and the S&P 500’s gain of 4.27%.

The company’s earnings report is set to go public on March 6, 2025.

Source – Zacks.com

On Wednesday, TD Securities shifted its stance on ERO Copper Corp (ERO:CN) (OTC: ERRPF), raising the stock rating from Hold to Buy, while adjusting the price target to Cdn$23.00, down from the previous Cdn$26.00. The upgrade reflects a change in sentiment based on the company’s current share price and its future growth prospects.

The analysts at TD Securities anticipate a significant turnaround in free cash flow (FCF) starting in the second quarter of 2025. They project a 95% year-over-year improvement in copper production for the current year, with expectations for continued growth into 2026.

Source – Investing.com

Indonesia has restricted raw material exports to pressure companies to refine minerals locally and add value to its exports. Freeport has local refining capacity, but is seeking to keep exporting concentrate due to a fire last October at its Manyar smelterin East Java.

Should exports resume, it will relieve, although not reverse, a shortage of copper concentrate that has hit the profits of smelters.

Source – Reuters

While no official tariff has been imposed, the price gap between the CME and London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts has widened sharply, with CME copper trading at a premium exceeding $1,000 per metric ton. This suggests the market is pricing in at least a 10% tariff, though a 25% duty, similar to those on aluminum and steel, remains a possibility.

Source – Econo Times