Fed Likely to Hold Rates in 2025
Gold has benefited from geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand, but a prolonged period of restrictive Fed policy presents risks.
Source – FXEMPIRE
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Gold hit another record high
Gold is on a tear, hitting a record high in New York on Monday at almost $3,150 an ounce to bring the rise this year to 19%.
Analysts at Bank of America think gold could hit $3,500 an ounce if demand increases by 10%.
“Uncertainty around Trump Administration trade policies could continue to push the dollar lower, further supporting gold prices near-term. In our view, a broad rebalancing of America’s twin deficits could be bullish gold too.”
Source – Markets Insider
Gold edges lower, the dollar strengthens
Gold prices eased on Monday on a firmer dollar, in thin, holiday-season trade and as investors sought further clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for next year after its latest meeting signaled easing would be gradual.
“Presently, we are in a lull for Christmas week with the gold price trending sideways. Federal Reserve policy is clear with expectations of rising interest rates in the second half of the year,” said Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals.
Seeking Alpha analyst weighs in on gold
SA analyst World Gold Council stated: “While gold may face some consolidation due to the speed of its latest move, the combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, rising inflation, lower rates, and a weaker US dollar continue to provide powerful tailwinds to investment demand,”
“I recommend buying assets that track the price of gold… Inflation had been on an upward trend, but the lower-than-expected reading in February added more uncertainty to investors. Additionally, recession fears could lead the Fed to cut interest rates. All these uncertainties drive up gold prices,”
Source – Seeking Alpha
Copper and Aluminum drop
Base metal prices plunged early Friday, with three-month benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange recently -3.7% at $8,985.50/metric ton and three-month aluminum -1.4% at $2,422.50/ton, as President Trump’s worse than expected tariffs trigger global growth slowdown fears, sparking a selloff in industrial metals and mining equities.
Copper and aluminum have dropped 8.7% and 7.7%, respectively, so far this week, as the tariffs drag down demand forecasts
Trump hit China with a 34% “reciprocal” tariff on top of existing duties, and China announced Friday that it will likewise impose 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods starting April 10.
“While we remain structurally bullish copper in the long run, weaker global GDP and copper demand growth risk delaying the deficit we expect to see in the market this year,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
Source – Seeking Alpha
UBS raised gold target to $3200
“With the price now reaching our long-held target of $3,000/oz, the main question is whether the rally will continue. We think so, as long as policy risks and an intensifying trade conflict continue to spur safe-haven demand,” UBS said.
Source – Seeking Alpha
UBS Group AG – formerly Union Bank of Switzerland, is a multinational investment bank and financial services company based in Switzerland.
Citi raises gold price target
“In our bull case, we see gold prices reaching $3,500 per ounce by year-end, underpinned by much higher hedging/investment demand on fears of US hard landing/stagflation,” analysts at Citi said in a note.
Source – Reuters