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Gold rally similar to 45 years ago

ByVictoria

With tensions running high between historic allies over U.S. tariffs, global trade, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, big powers look unlikely to pull together swiftly this time to resolve the issues driving interest in bullion as a haven from risk, analysts say.

The metal’s surge above $3,000 an ounce, driven most recently by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new round of tariffs on trading partners, has been the first time in a long time that geopolitics and economic uncertainty have served as the top factors moving the gold market, HSBC analyst James Steel said.

While the market has this year conquered a series of milestones, one more remains. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that gold peaked at $850 in January of 1980, which in dollar terms would equate to $3,486 today.

Source – Reuters

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    Gold prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday as a weaker dollar and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, along with concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook, drove investors towards safe-haven assets.

    Spot gold climbed 1.4% to $3,349.32 an ounce by 1203 GMT while U.S. gold futures jumped 1.6% to $3,361.70.

    Spot silver firmed 0.9% to $36.41 an ounce, platinum was down 0.1% at $1,351.80 and palladium gained 2.5% to $1,124.79.

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    Gold slips, Dollar gains

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    Gold prices fell sharply by Rs 1,000 to Rs 98,400 per 10 grams in the national capital on Monday, amid a weak global trend and optimism surrounding a possible US-China trade agreement, according to media reports citing the All India Sarafa Association.

    “Gold prices continued to decline as easing US-China trade tensions boosted investors’ risk appetite, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like bullion while a stronger dollar added downward pressure,” said Chintan Mehta, Chief Executive Officer of Abans Financial Services, as quoted in media reports.

    “Rising geopolitical tensions could limit gold’s downside. As war risks escalate and new conflicts emerge, investors are likely to seek refuge in gold.”

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    Copper tariff in effect August 1

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    U.S. President Donald Trump sprang a double surprise on the copper market when he announced import tariffs of 50% effective next month.

    The August 1 start date signals the end of the race to ship physical metal to the United States to capture the tariff arbitrage.

    A lucky few with cargoes already afloat may yet cross the finishing line in time, but the physical tariff trade is rapidly unwinding.

    The LME benchmark spread is now in a comfortable contango of $66 per ton, compared with a backwardation of more than $300 per ton at the end of June.

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    Platinum supply and demand forecast

    ByVictoria
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    Platinum demand outpaced supply by 995,000 ounces last year. That was 46 percent higher than forecast.

    Meanwhile, platinum jewelry sales grew by 8 percent in 2024, and investment demand took off, rising by 77 percent.

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    Chile in a “wait and see” mode

    ByVictoria
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    Chile’s place at the low-end of U.S. tariffs announced last week could be favorable for the world’s leading copper-producing country if U.S. President Donald Trump decides to slap tariffs on copper, Chile Mining Minister Aurora Williams said on Wednesday.

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