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The U.S. is expected to implement a 50% tariff on copper imports at the end of the week, but what happens next is anyone’s guess as talk of an exemption for Chile, the biggest U.S. supplier of the metal, and a potential U.S. and European “metal alliance” heats up.

“There remains uncertainty over country-based exemptions and a general sense of tariff fatigue,” wrote Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, in a note Tuesday. The European Union, meanwhile, looks to get a break when it comes to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper.

President Donald Trump’s announcement on July 8 of the coming tariff had led to a 13% spike in copper prices that day, to settle at $5.6855 a pound, a record-high finish at that time, based on data going back to 1968, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Scott-Gray said that when it comes to a potential country-based tariff exemption, Chile is “singled out,” not just because of Marcel’s comments and ongoing negotiations this week, but because the U.S. is reliant on Chile’s imports and the fact that the U.S. holds a trade surplus with Chile, she said.

Source – Market Watch

“These projections are supported by a rise in copper demand from the energy transition, electricity grids and a limited supply,” Claudia Rodriguez, Cochilco’s interim VP, said in a statement, adding that geopolitical tensions also played a role.

“Uncertainty about China’s economic recovery, tariffs implemented by the United States and the hardening of monetary policy could limit the demand for copper, affecting its price,” Rodriguez said.

It also expects Chile’s copper production to rise by 4.6% this year to 5.76 million tons and grow another 3.6% to 5.97 million tons in 2026.

Source – Mining.com