Copper, yet to be included in Donald Trump’s widening list of tariff-hit products, continues to rally on the assumption that it is just a matter of time, Saxo Bank said in a note, as it sees a sooner-than-expected tightening of the global market.

Copper futures (HG1:COM) are up 2.8% so far this week, and 6.3% for the month. 

The copper market is still awaiting the result of an investigation carried out under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

“As such an investigation normally takes months to be completed, it has left the door wide open for a massive profitable arbitrage between international prices and those in the U.S. being reflected through the High Grade futures contract in New York.”

Source – Seeking Alpha

China will import even more off-exchange refined copper this year, according to analysts and traders, as output from the Congo booms and users look to alleviate shortages and head off a potential disruption to supplies of U.S. scrap.

“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode and blister, is still tight. We therefore expect higher imports of plentiful refined copper, including EQ copper to partly compensate for this tightness in other raw materials,” Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at metals research company Project Blue said.

Source – Reuters

Goldman Sachs says U.S. net copper imports could rise by 50%-100% in the coming months due to higher U.S. prices before the Trump administration’s planned tariffs, which the bank believes will be imposed at 25% and lead to the surge in imports and a 200K-300K-ton increase in U.S. copper inventories by the end of Q3.

“We maintain our forecast that the LME month-month price will average $10,200/ton in 2024 Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads,” the bank writes.

Source – Seeking Alpha

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said nothing would stop President Donald Trump’s expanded 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum until U.S. domestic production is strengthened, and that Trump will add copper to his trade protections.

“We can’t be in a war and rely on steel and aluminum from some other country. I mean, it’s just not reasonable,” Lutnick said. “So the president wants steel and aluminum in America, and let me be clear, nothing is going to stop that until we’ve got a big, strong domestic steel and aluminum capability. And by the way, he’s going to add copper to that mix too.”

Source – Reuters