Copper

Africa’s copper industry is poised for growth in 2025, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia – the continent’s largest producers – leading market expansion. Both countries are investing in new production mines, mineral exploration campaigns and the modernization of existing facilities to increase output.

Source – Sweet Crude Reports

Copper, yet to be included in Donald Trump’s widening list of tariff-hit products, continues to rally on the assumption that it is just a matter of time, Saxo Bank said in a note, as it sees a sooner-than-expected tightening of the global market.

Copper futures (HG1:COM) are up 2.8% so far this week, and 6.3% for the month. 

The copper market is still awaiting the result of an investigation carried out under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

“As such an investigation normally takes months to be completed, it has left the door wide open for a massive profitable arbitrage between international prices and those in the U.S. being reflected through the High Grade futures contract in New York.”

Source – Seeking Alpha

China will import even more off-exchange refined copper this year, according to analysts and traders, as output from the Congo booms and users look to alleviate shortages and head off a potential disruption to supplies of U.S. scrap.

“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode and blister, is still tight. We therefore expect higher imports of plentiful refined copper, including EQ copper to partly compensate for this tightness in other raw materials,” Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at metals research company Project Blue said.

Source – Reuters

Goldman Sachs says U.S. net copper imports could rise by 50%-100% in the coming months due to higher U.S. prices before the Trump administration’s planned tariffs, which the bank believes will be imposed at 25% and lead to the surge in imports and a 200K-300K-ton increase in U.S. copper inventories by the end of Q3.

“We maintain our forecast that the LME month-month price will average $10,200/ton in 2024 Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads,” the bank writes.

Source – Seeking Alpha

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said nothing would stop President Donald Trump’s expanded 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum until U.S. domestic production is strengthened, and that Trump will add copper to his trade protections.

“We can’t be in a war and rely on steel and aluminum from some other country. I mean, it’s just not reasonable,” Lutnick said. “So the president wants steel and aluminum in America, and let me be clear, nothing is going to stop that until we’ve got a big, strong domestic steel and aluminum capability. And by the way, he’s going to add copper to that mix too.”

Source – Reuters

Benchmark LME copper futures are more than 9% higher so far this year, and Comex copper is 16% higher YTD, with the Comex now trading at a 10%-12% premium over LME, and Morgan Stanley analysts see more room for growth.

“We stay constructive on copper, our preferred base metal,” Morgan Stanley wrote. “Fundamentals and price signals are positive, and inventories are tightening as metal gets pulled to the U.S. Tariffs may bring demand concerns in the future, but for now physical markets continue to tighten.”

Source – Seeking Alpha

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N), opens new tab hopes U.S. President Donald Trump declares copper a critical mineral, a move that would unlock tax credits needed to boost American production of the red metal and offset global rivals, CEO Kathleen Quirk said on Monday.

“Having the incentives and clarity around those would be a big plus for the domestic copper industry,” said Quirk, who became CEO of Phoenix-based Freeport last year.

“People are understanding more what copper is used for and its importance in our economy. It’s just a matter of time before it’s classified as a critical mineral.”

“We’re not looking for handouts, but if the government is trying to incentivize domestic production, it’s important to recognize that the U.S. doesn’t have the same grades that we have internationally,” said Quirk.

Source – Reuters

Indonesia’s government may allow Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) to export ~1M tons of copper concentrate, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Friday.

Freeport Indonesia (FCX) has been seeking permission to export copper concentrate after it was forced to stop copper cathode production at its new smelter in Gresik after a fire broke out at its gas cleaning unit in October.

Source – Seeking Alpha

China’s unwrought copper imports declined by 7.2% year-on-year to 837,000 metric tons in the first two months of 2025, customs data on Friday showed, due to increased domestic smelting capacity that reduced the need for additional imports.

Deliverable copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 268,337 tons on February 28, more than double the 83,174 tons recorded on January 3.

Source – Reuters