Gold

UBS and Commerzbank raised their gold price forecasts on Friday, joining other investment banks as investors drive the safe-haven metal to record highs amid the economic uncertainty sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets, stoking fears of inflation and a global recession. While he has paused most duties, he has hiked those on China to 145%, prompting Beijing to lift its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

“We expect gold’s rally to extend into next year and for prices to stabilise at higher levels further out,” UBS analysts said in a note

Source – Reuters

Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered the largest quarterly inflow in three years in January-March, 2025, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed on Tuesday.

Investors seeking shelter from political and economic volatility were moving into gold ETFs, which store bullion for investors, in the first quarter.

Gold ETFs saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tons worth $21.1 billion in the first quarter, the largest amount since the first quarter of 2022, when global markets were grappling with the immediate consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Source – Reuters

With tensions running high between historic allies over U.S. tariffs, global trade, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, big powers look unlikely to pull together swiftly this time to resolve the issues driving interest in bullion as a haven from risk, analysts say.

The metal’s surge above $3,000 an ounce, driven most recently by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new round of tariffs on trading partners, has been the first time in a long time that geopolitics and economic uncertainty have served as the top factors moving the gold market, HSBC analyst James Steel said.

While the market has this year conquered a series of milestones, one more remains. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that gold peaked at $850 in January of 1980, which in dollar terms would equate to $3,486 today.

Source – Reuters

Gold prices experienced a modest uptick on Monday, rising 0.1 percent to $3,040.57 per ounce. Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $3,040.57 an ounce as of 7:39 a.m. ET, rebounding after dipping to a session low of $2,971.09 earlier, when some investors sold off bullion to offset losses elsewhere, Reutersreported.

The imposition of the tariffs has intensified fears of a global recession. Investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against potential economic downturns. However, the recent sell-off in gold suggests that investors may be liquidating positions to cover losses in other markets, reflecting concerns over the widespread impact of a trade war.

“Once the dust settles, the rising recession risks, a weaker dollar, lower real yields and bigger rate cut expectations will all play their part in supporting a rebound….

“Gold’s correction remains a relatively shallow one with key support levels holding.” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Source – Reuters

“While traditionally inflation and real yields have been the main drivers of gold prices, recently central bank buying has emerged as the primary catalyst behind the current gold price increase,” according to a recent research note by Bank of America’s Global Commodity Research’s Franciso Blanch and Irina Shaorshadze.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, also believes central-bank buying will keep gold humming this year, but he also sees two additional drivers. 

Source – Fox Business