Precious Metals

The precious metal remains supported as concerns about an intensifying global trade war continue to place downward pressure on the dollar and Treasurys amid diminishing faith in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner. 

Gold’s price, which soared 6% last week and trades 23% higher since the start of the year, seesawed Sunday evening as investors digested news that recently announced U.S. tariff exemptions on smartphones, computers, and semiconductors could be temporary, with the president later pledging a national security trade investigation into the chip sector.

Source – Investopedia

“During the last three days, gold is up over 8% and on pace for its largest three-day move since March 2020,” Bespoke Investment Group said in a note Friday morning. “Before that, you would have to go back to the financial crisis to find the last time it rallied as much in three days.”

“Gold may be catching a bid, but the dollar has floundered,” said Bespoke. “If you were looking for bonds to provide some ballast in your portfolio this week, you didn’t get it with Treasuries.”

Source – Market Watch

UBS and Commerzbank raised their gold price forecasts on Friday, joining other investment banks as investors drive the safe-haven metal to record highs amid the economic uncertainty sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Trump’s tariffs have roiled financial markets, stoking fears of inflation and a global recession. While he has paused most duties, he has hiked those on China to 145%, prompting Beijing to lift its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

“We expect gold’s rally to extend into next year and for prices to stabilise at higher levels further out,” UBS analysts said in a note

Source – Reuters

Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered the largest quarterly inflow in three years in January-March, 2025, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) showed on Tuesday.

Investors seeking shelter from political and economic volatility were moving into gold ETFs, which store bullion for investors, in the first quarter.

Gold ETFs saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tons worth $21.1 billion in the first quarter, the largest amount since the first quarter of 2022, when global markets were grappling with the immediate consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Source – Reuters

With tensions running high between historic allies over U.S. tariffs, global trade, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, big powers look unlikely to pull together swiftly this time to resolve the issues driving interest in bullion as a haven from risk, analysts say.

The metal’s surge above $3,000 an ounce, driven most recently by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new round of tariffs on trading partners, has been the first time in a long time that geopolitics and economic uncertainty have served as the top factors moving the gold market, HSBC analyst James Steel said.

While the market has this year conquered a series of milestones, one more remains. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that gold peaked at $850 in January of 1980, which in dollar terms would equate to $3,486 today.

Source – Reuters

Gold prices experienced a modest uptick on Monday, rising 0.1 percent to $3,040.57 per ounce. Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $3,040.57 an ounce as of 7:39 a.m. ET, rebounding after dipping to a session low of $2,971.09 earlier, when some investors sold off bullion to offset losses elsewhere, Reutersreported.

The imposition of the tariffs has intensified fears of a global recession. Investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against potential economic downturns. However, the recent sell-off in gold suggests that investors may be liquidating positions to cover losses in other markets, reflecting concerns over the widespread impact of a trade war.

“Once the dust settles, the rising recession risks, a weaker dollar, lower real yields and bigger rate cut expectations will all play their part in supporting a rebound….

“Gold’s correction remains a relatively shallow one with key support levels holding.” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

Source – Reuters