Copper

Unusually large shipments of copper to the United States are unlikely to abate as long as the threat of tariffs hangs over the market and price premiums for the metal on U.S.-based COMEX make deals profitable for traders and producers, analysts said.

COMEX copper hit a record high at $11,633 a metric ton on March 26, creating a premium of more than $1,570 a ton against the benchmark contract on the London Metal Exchange.

“We expect 250,000-300,000 tons of extra copper will be shipped to the U.S. over March-May because of the spread and amid the uncertainties regarding the tariff,” said Sharon Ding, head of China basic materials at UBS Investment Research.

“It’s possible we’ll see more atypical cargos in the second half of May,” Kpler analyst Ben Ayre said. “While the COMEX price continues to run at a premium to the LME there’s a strong incentive to land refined copper in the United States.”

Source – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatened tariff on copper imports has generated a mass relocation of physical metal, swamping the U.S. market and draining the rest of the world.

The physical response has been so powerful that it has caused the futures arbitrage between the CME contract and the London Metal Exchange (LME) price to collapse.

CME copper inventory has risen by 81% since the start of the year and is now at an eight-year high of 168,563 short tons (152,919 metric tons).

LME copper inventory has slumped to a one-year low of 179,375 tons, with 40% of what remains awaiting physical load-out.

China’s imports of refined copper fell 5% on a year-over-year basis and 20% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in the January-March period as metal was diverted to the U.S.

Source – Reuters

Attorneys representing the San Carlos Apache Tribe are asking the judge to grant an injunction pausing a land swap from the U.S. government to Resolution Copper

During the hearing, attorneys representing the tribe asked a federal judge to grant a temporary injunction pausing an upcoming land swap from the U.S. government to mining giant Resolution Copper.

Attorneys for the tribe argued May 7 that a pause is necessary as the Supreme Court considers whether to take up the case.

Source – ABC 15 Arizona

Construction continues to advance on schedule and first copper production is still targeted before the end of 2025. Overall project completion was at 78% as of March 31, 2025.

“The project is in great shape and Florence Copper will soon become a major new supplier of copper cathode for the US market. The project is uniquely positioned to produce and sell refined copper inside the United States and potentially benefit from premium COMEX copper pricing in the coming years.”

Source – Yahoo Finance

BHP warned Thursday that a tariff war could slow the global economy and disrupt world trade, as the world’s biggest miner reported a slight decline in quarterly iron ore production and a 10% rise in copper output due to higher volumes from the giant Escondida mine in Chile.

“Despite the limited direct impact of tariffs on BHP, the implication of slower economic growth and a fragmented trading environment could be more significant,” CEO Mike Henry said. “China’s ability to shift toward a consumption-led economy and for trade flows to adapt to the new environment will be key to sustaining the global outlook.”

Source – Seeking Alpha

London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper slumped to a 17-month low of $8,105 per metric ton on April 7 after China responded to U.S. tariffs in kind.

Citi, which now expects copper to hit $8,000 per ton over the next three months, warns that commodity markets are still not pricing the full potential impact on demand.

Copper as a macro play cannot but reflect the broader market concerns about the negative impact of an escalating trade war between the United States and China on the world economy.

But at a micro level, the specific threat of U.S. tariffs on the metal is pulling normal trade patterns out of shape and causing both LME and Shanghai exchange inventories to fall.

Source – Reuters

Chile’s place at the low-end of U.S. tariffs announced last week could be favorable for the world’s leading copper-producing country if U.S. President Donald Trump decides to slap tariffs on copper, Chile Mining Minister Aurora Williams said on Wednesday.

Chile is in “wait-and-see” mode until the investigation concludes, Williams told Reuters, but sees potential for a positive outcome even if the U.S. imposes tariffs on copper.

“If we assume that Chile is within the lowest tariff range, the application of a potential 10% tariff is lower than the tariffs we have seen for other copper-producing countries and therefore also generates a better price position,” Williams said

Source – Reuters

The trade war stirred by U.S. tariffs raises a risk for metal demand, the head of Chile’s Antofagasta said, although he predicted AI and other technology could offset any loss of traditional consumption caused by economic weakness.

He also said President Donald Trump’s policies could lead to a more favourable environment for investment in mining

Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada said he expected supplies of copper, needed for construction and the transition to a lower carbon economy, would remain in limited supply.

“In the current environment, where there is a lot more support for mining investment, it should be easier and should happen,” Arriagada said

Source – Reuters

Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco on Monday said that prices for the red metal have likely already peaked this year amid an escalating trade war, as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to further increase tariffs on China.

“Base metals, including copper, are likely to have peaked in 2025 as they will be negatively impacted by the trade dynamics between the U.S. and China,” Cochilco said in a statement.

Cochilco said that if current economic and geopolitical conditions continue, its forecast would weaken.

Source – Reuters