Copper

India’s steel-to-power conglomerate JSW Group plans to set up a 500,000 metric ton capacity copper smelter in the eastern state of Odisha by 2028/29 with feedstock of copper concentrate from Peru and Chile, a source directly aware of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

JSW plans to feed its planned electric vehicle and battery manufacturing facilities with the copper produced at the smelter, the source added. Some of the concentrate supply will come from Hindustan Copper, the source said.

Source – Reuters

The U.S. will soon be flooded with massive amounts of copper shipments in a global rush to front-run President Trump’s probable tariffs, with 100K-150K metric tons of refined copper expected to arrive in U.S. ports in the coming weeks, which potentially would surpass the all-time record of 136,951 tons set in January 2022, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they expect all forms of copper shipped to the U.S. to be hit with tariffs by year-end, keeping Comex prices at a hefty premium over other benchmarks, and noted that tariffs could cause China to refine 10K-20K tons/month less copper within the first three months – in a global market that Goldman already expected to face a 180K-ton deficit this year.

Source – Seeking Alpha

Copper’s rise is being driven “solely by supply concerns surrounding the potential for universal tariffs to be placed on all imports of copper into the U.S.,” said Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals demand analyst at StoneX. The U.S. is “heavily reliant on foreign copper, with imports accounting for [around] 45% of demand.”

Copper prices have climbed more than 23% in 2025 through Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Source – Market Watch

Africa’s copper industry is poised for growth in 2025, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia – the continent’s largest producers – leading market expansion. Both countries are investing in new production mines, mineral exploration campaigns and the modernization of existing facilities to increase output.

Source – Sweet Crude Reports

Copper, yet to be included in Donald Trump’s widening list of tariff-hit products, continues to rally on the assumption that it is just a matter of time, Saxo Bank said in a note, as it sees a sooner-than-expected tightening of the global market.

Copper futures (HG1:COM) are up 2.8% so far this week, and 6.3% for the month. 

The copper market is still awaiting the result of an investigation carried out under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

“As such an investigation normally takes months to be completed, it has left the door wide open for a massive profitable arbitrage between international prices and those in the U.S. being reflected through the High Grade futures contract in New York.”

Source – Seeking Alpha

China will import even more off-exchange refined copper this year, according to analysts and traders, as output from the Congo booms and users look to alleviate shortages and head off a potential disruption to supplies of U.S. scrap.

“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode and blister, is still tight. We therefore expect higher imports of plentiful refined copper, including EQ copper to partly compensate for this tightness in other raw materials,” Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at metals research company Project Blue said.

Source – Reuters

Goldman Sachs says U.S. net copper imports could rise by 50%-100% in the coming months due to higher U.S. prices before the Trump administration’s planned tariffs, which the bank believes will be imposed at 25% and lead to the surge in imports and a 200K-300K-ton increase in U.S. copper inventories by the end of Q3.

“We maintain our forecast that the LME month-month price will average $10,200/ton in 2024 Q3, and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads,” the bank writes.

Source – Seeking Alpha

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said nothing would stop President Donald Trump’s expanded 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum until U.S. domestic production is strengthened, and that Trump will add copper to his trade protections.

“We can’t be in a war and rely on steel and aluminum from some other country. I mean, it’s just not reasonable,” Lutnick said. “So the president wants steel and aluminum in America, and let me be clear, nothing is going to stop that until we’ve got a big, strong domestic steel and aluminum capability. And by the way, he’s going to add copper to that mix too.”

Source – Reuters

Benchmark LME copper futures are more than 9% higher so far this year, and Comex copper is 16% higher YTD, with the Comex now trading at a 10%-12% premium over LME, and Morgan Stanley analysts see more room for growth.

“We stay constructive on copper, our preferred base metal,” Morgan Stanley wrote. “Fundamentals and price signals are positive, and inventories are tightening as metal gets pulled to the U.S. Tariffs may bring demand concerns in the future, but for now physical markets continue to tighten.”

Source – Seeking Alpha