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Copper price forecast

The EV industry in China and the world is already booming; pumping copper’s status as “the new oil”. As such, the red metal is set to rise above the current uncertainties to record significant gains in the medium to long term.

Copper has also jumped above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising. Therefore, it will likely rebound and retest the key support at $5 in the coming weeks.

Source – Invezz

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RSI (Relative Strength Index) – is a technical indicator intended to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period.

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    Glencore has suspended production and declared force majeure on copper shipments from its Altonorte smelter in Chile due to an issue affecting the plant’s furnace, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, in a setback that comes just as traders and producers race to ship more metal to the U.S. ahead of tariffs.

    Much of the copper produced in Chile is shipped to the U.S., where Comex prices have surged to record highs on worries about shortages due to tariffs; the most active Comex copper contract (HG1:COM) for May delivery hit $5.374/lb, or $11,847/metric ton on Wednesday.

    Source – Seeking Alpha

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    Silver jewelry demand increasing

    Industrial silver demand set a record last year, but despite the increase in offtake, overall silver offtake declined by 3 percent to 1.16 billion ounces, primarily due to weak investment demand.

    Silver jewelry demand grew by 3 percent to 208.7 million ounces in 2024.

    The Silver Institute reported that improving exports to key Western countries also lifted silver jewelry demand.

    Growth in demand for silver jewelry will likely contribute to increasing overall demand, putting further pressure on already limited silver supplies.

    Source – Money Metals

  • Copper giant Peru foresees another production plateau in 2025

    Peruvian copper production is expected to remain flat in 2025 for the third straight year, according to the country’s top mining association and industry analysts, as declining ore grades and a lack of new projects cap output.

    Peru’s top mining association SNMPE expects the country’s 2025 copper output to hit around 2.8 million metric tons, matching 2023 and what is expected for 2024, as miners contend with poorer-quality resources and development bottlenecks for new projects.

    “By 2025, Peruvian copper production is expected to be similar to this year’s expected 2.8 million tons,” said Victor Gobitz, SNMPE’s head, in an interview last week.

    Source – Reuters

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    Copper tariffs begin on August 1st, Chile “singled out”

    The U.S. is expected to implement a 50% tariff on copper imports at the end of the week, but what happens next is anyone’s guess as talk of an exemption for Chile, the biggest U.S. supplier of the metal, and a potential U.S. and European “metal alliance” heats up.

    “There remains uncertainty over country-based exemptions and a general sense of tariff fatigue,” wrote Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, in a note Tuesday. The European Union, meanwhile, looks to get a break when it comes to U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper.

    President Donald Trump’s announcement on July 8 of the coming tariff had led to a 13% spike in copper prices that day, to settle at $5.6855 a pound, a record-high finish at that time, based on data going back to 1968, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Scott-Gray said that when it comes to a potential country-based tariff exemption, Chile is “singled out,” not just because of Marcel’s comments and ongoing negotiations this week, but because the U.S. is reliant on Chile’s imports and the fact that the U.S. holds a trade surplus with Chile, she said.

    Source – Market Watch