“Codelco remains a good option to grab some extra spread over sovereign bonds.”
Copper futures are up about 15% this year in New York, although part of that is due to an up-tick in buying ahead of possible tariffs.
“Good governance and high copper prices should be good for bonds. Codelco is interesting.”
Source – Bloomberg
The trade war stirred by U.S. tariffs raises a risk for metal demand, the head of Chile’s Antofagasta said, although he predicted AI and other technology could offset any loss of traditional consumption caused by economic weakness.
He also said President Donald Trump’s policies could lead to a more favourable environment for investment in mining
Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada said he expected supplies of copper, needed for construction and the transition to a lower carbon economy, would remain in limited supply.
“In the current environment, where there is a lot more support for mining investment, it should be easier and should happen,” Arriagada said
Source – Reuters
Copper prices in the U.S. have surged ahead of those in the rest of world and hit a record last week, a sign the mere threat of tariffs is lifting costs for domestic manufacturers.
Benchmark U.S. copper futures ended Monday at $5.02 a pound, up 26% this year. That compares with an 11% gain to $9,673 a metric ton, or about $4.39 a pound, on the London Metal Exchange, which is the global trading hub.
U.S. copper futures have been the top performer among major commodities in the first quarter. Prices for the industrial metal last week topped the record set in May but have since pulled back. Copper’s gains have outpaced the 21% rise in lumber futures, which was also fueled by uncertainty over tariffs.
Source – Wall Street Journal
Spot prices hit another record high of $3,357.40 per troy ounce on Wednesday before falling back after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said President Donald Trump’s tariffs were “significantly larger” than expected.
The Goldman analysts said that stresses in bond markets “increase our conviction that gold is uniquely positioned to hedge recession risk.”
The bank’s economists say there’s a 45% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. If that happens, the analysts said gold could hit $3,880 by the end of the year — or even as much as $4,500 under certain scenarios.
Source – Markets Insider
China will import even more off-exchange refined copper this year, according to analysts and traders, as output from the Congo booms and users look to alleviate shortages and head off a potential disruption to supplies of U.S. scrap.
“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode and blister, is still tight. We therefore expect higher imports of plentiful refined copper, including EQ copper to partly compensate for this tightness in other raw materials,” Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at metals research company Project Blue said.
Source – Reuters
“Gold is an asset that is able to preserve value under the biggest variety of macroeconomic dislocations that we have seen,” said Thomas Kertsos, co-portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management LLC. “We’ve seen that over centuries gold has been able to — despite the volatility — always mean-revert and always maintain its purchasing power, all while providing significant liquidity.”
“You’ve got huge uncertainty coming out of US policy that’s also just casting its shade over the global economy this year,” said Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity in Singapore.
The foundations for the gold rally were partly set by global central banks’ wariness of relying heavily on the US dollar, also a reflection of geopolitical uncertainty.
Source – Bloomberg
Rally – is a period of sustained increases in the prices of related indexes. In this case we are talking about gold.
“Under the proposed law, the Texas Comptroller would issue gold and silver specie (coins) through the Texas Bullion Depository and also establish gold and silver transactional currency defined as ‘the representation of gold and silver specie and bullion held in the pooled depository account,’” wrote Mike Maharrey, Communications Director at the Tenth Amendment Center. “The Depository would be required to hold enough gold and silver to back 100 percent of the issued currency.”
If approved, the bills would enable “Holders of gold and silver specie and currency to use them as ‘legal tender in payment of debt,’ in the state of Texas,” he noted. “The gold and silver-backed currency would be electronically transferable to another person. Gold and silver-backed currency would be redeemable in specie or at the spot price of gold in U.S. dollars minus applicable fees.”
Source – KITCO News
Northeast Numismatics of Concord, Massachusetts, is the lone supplier of the special 2025-dated commemorative coin altered for this occasion. “We realized we were coming up on the 250th anniversary a few years ago and got the idea to do something special,” said Northeast owner Tom Caldwell.
The five-year (2021-25) First Amendment to the United States Constitution coin series concludes this month with the release of the final issue.
The $100 platinum proof coins are priced at $1,545, and mintage is limited to 9,000. To order, visit the U.S. Mint’s website.
Source – The Reading Room
